[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 17 10:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 16 February.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
17-19 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 16 February, the solar wind speed
was at its background levels, ranging from 320 km/s to 375 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +4/-3 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels
for the next three UT days, 17-19 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 21001000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 21011000
Townsville 2 20011010
Learmonth 2 21011101
Alice Springs 0 10001000
Gingin 1 21000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 7 23321111
Mawson 9 43222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0002 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 7 Quiet
18 Feb 7 Quiet
19 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 16 February were at
quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions
experiencing mostly quiet and a short-lived unsettled period.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for
17-19 February with possible occasional unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 17-19 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 16 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Periods of mild enhancements in MUFs were observed over
most Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
at some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next three days, 17-19 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 37800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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