[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 16 10:31:22 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 15 February.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
16-18 February. A possible CME first seen in coronagraph imagery
starting near 15/1100 UT is a far-side event and will not impact
Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 15 February, the solar wind speed
was at its background levels, ranging from 310 km/s to 380 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-6 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +4/-4 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels
for the next three UT days, 16-18 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11122101
Cocos Island 2 11112100
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 3 11122101
Learmonth 4 11122112
Alice Springs 3 11022101
Gingin 4 11022112
Canberra 4 01023111
Hobart 3 01023101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 00033000
Casey 9 24222122
Mawson 12 43212233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 7 Quiet
17 Feb 7 Quiet
18 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 15 February were at
quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions
experiencing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet for 16-18 February with
possible unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 16-18 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 15 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Periods of mild enhancements in MUFs were observed in
the Southern Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed
at some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next three days, 16-18 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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