[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 15 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 14 February.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 February. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 14 February, the solar wind speed
was at its background levels, gradually decreasing from 360 km/s
to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-5 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +2/-3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background
levels for the next three UT days, 15-17 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 21000001
Cocos Island 1 21000000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 11000012
Learmonth 2 21000002
Alice Springs 1 11000002
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 1 21000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 10000001
Casey 8 33421001
Mawson 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 7 Quiet
16 Feb 7 Quiet
17 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 14 February were at
quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions
experiencing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet for 15-17 February with
possible unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 14 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Periods of mild enhancements in MUFs were observed in
the Northern Australian region. Variable conditions were observed
in Equatorial region, with both mild depressions and moderate
enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
three days, 15-17 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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