[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 20 issued 2338 UT on 20 Feb 2020

Fri Feb 21 10:38:37 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 20 February. 
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and 
no regions expected to return. Very low levels of solar activity 
are forecast for the next three days, 21-23 February. No Earth-bound 
CMEs observed. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed on 20 February 
until ~1709 UT when the density showed a positive step to 10 
p/cm3. This density was maintained until 2050 UT when it declined 
to pre-step levels. The total field increased at ~2050 UT to 
9 nT while the north-south component of the IMF has been southward 
since that time to -8 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be at background to mildly elevated levels due to patchy coronal 
holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12032222
      Cocos Island         5   11012232
      Darwin               6   12022223
      Townsville           8   12132223
      Learmonth           10   22133233
      Alice Springs        6   12032222
      Gingin               7   11032232
      Canberra             6   12032212
      Hobart               8   13133212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    13   12154311
      Casey               14   34432123
      Mawson              21   43312255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2433 2102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb    14    Quiet to Unsettled. Possible isolated Active 
                period.
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled on 20 February. Isolated active periods 
also observed at high southern latitudes. The global geomagnetic 
field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
levels on 21 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions expected 21 to 
23 February. Possible depressions on 21 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Feb   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
22 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 20 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly to enhanced. Spread F observed 
at Niue, Darwin and Hobart during night. Sporadic E observed 
during day and evening at Perth, nighttime at Hobart and around 
dawn at Brisbane and Sydney. MUFs are likely to be near predicted 
monthly values. Some depressions to 20% possible. Night spread 
F and day and evening sporadic E are possible on 21 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    89900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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