[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 10 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 09 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 10-12 February. During UT day 09 February, the solar
wind speed was moderately enhanced, varying in the range 420-450
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was steady near 4 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -3 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue declining towards its
nominal levels during UT day 10 February. On 11 February the
solar wind is expected to enhance again in response to the high-speed
streams associated with the coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11112221
Cocos Island 3 11111120
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 4 21112211
Learmonth 5 21112221
Alice Springs 3 20111211
Gingin 6 11112232
Canberra 3 11111211
Hobart 4 11212210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11111100
Casey 12 34322232
Mawson 25 33322356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 3101 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 7 Quiet
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 9 February were mostly
at quiet levels for the Australian region. Antarctic regions
experienced mainly quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels on UT day
10 February. On UT day 11 February, geomagnetic activity is expected
to be initially at quiet levels and then it may reach unsettled
levels due to coronal hole effects. Isolated active periods are
possible for 11-12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for
UT day 09 February with enhancements for both northern and southern
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods mostly for southern
hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for the next three
UT days. Mildly degraded conditions for high-latitude regions
are likely on 11-12 February due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 09 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Sporadic-E
occurrences were observed at some sites. Near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for UT days 10-12 February with a possibility
of minor to mild depressions for 10 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 99300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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