[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 11 10:31:21 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 10 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 11-13 February. During UT day 10 February, the solar
wind speed varied between 450-350 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
steady near 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied between +3 nT and -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to
enhance from today, 11 February in response to high-speed streams
associated with a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 2 11100121
Darwin 4 11111122
Townsville 5 11221122
Learmonth 4 11111122
Alice Springs 3 10111122
Gingin 4 20111122
Canberra 1 10110000
Hobart 4 11221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11221011
Casey 12 34421122
Mawson 10 43222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 10 February were mostly
at Quiet levels for the Australian region. Antarctic regions
experienced Quiet to Active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the
next three days, 11-13 February due to coronal hole effects.
Isolated active periods are possible for 11 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 10 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
regions. Minor MUFs depressions were observed at Niue Island
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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