[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Feb 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 9 10:31:14 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 08 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 09-11 February. During UT day 08 February, the solar 
wind speed declined from 550 km/s to 450 km/s in response to 
the waning effects of a southern hemisphere coronal hole. The 
total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -3 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards its 
nominal levels today (UT day 09 February). Mostly nominal solar 
wind conditions are expected on UT day 10 February. From late 
UT 10 February or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance 
again in response to another coronal hole (northern hemisphere 
with extensions into the equatorial region) reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21102121
      Cocos Island         2   11101110
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           4   11112122
      Learmonth            4   21112112
      Alice Springs        3   21102120
      Gingin               4   21102122
      Canberra             3   11002121
      Hobart               4   12102121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   11112110
      Casey               15   44432222
      Mawson              19   42322345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3321 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     7    Quiet
10 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 8 February were at 
quiet level for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced 
mainly quiet to active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels and at times reaching 
unsettled level on UT day 09 February due to the waning effects 
of the current coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be initially quiet levels and then may reach unsettled to 
active level from late UT day 10 February in response to another 
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for 
UT day 08 February with enhancements for both northern and southern 
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods mostly for southern 
hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for the next three 
UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 08 February 
were mainly mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values 
for Equatorial and Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were observed at some sites. Near predicted monthly MUFs are 
expected for UT days 09-11 February with a possibility of minor 
to mild depressions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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