[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Feb 2020

Sat Feb 8 10:31:23 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 07 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 08-10 February. During UT day 07 February, the solar 
wind speed was enhanced due to a high speed stream from a southern 
hemisphere coronal hole. The solar wind speed reached its maximum 
value of 650 km/s at 07/0200 UT and then it was gradually decreasing, 
now near 550 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 9 
nT at 07/0104 UT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
reached a minimum of -8 nT at 07/0110 UT. Slightly later the 
total IMF (Bt) has returned to its nominal levels, 2-5 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on 08 and 09 
February due to the influence of the coronal hole; by the end 
of 09 February the speed is expected to return to its nominal 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32223222
      Cocos Island         6   22212221
      Darwin               9   32223222
      Townsville           9   32223222
      Learmonth           11   33223232
      Alice Springs        9   32223222
      Gingin              12   32233332
      Canberra             9   32223222
      Hobart              12   33333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    12   33234222
      Casey               24   55433333
      Mawson              44   35424376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   1242 2253     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 7 February were quiet 
to unsettled for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced 
mainly unsettled to minor storm conditions. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 
08 and 09 February due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to return to quiet levels on 10 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for 
UT day 07 February with enhancements for both northern and southern 
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods mostly for southern 
hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for the next three 
UT days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 07 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and 
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed 
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were observed at some sites. In the Australian region, 
near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for UT days 08-10 February 
with a possibility of minor to mild depressions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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