[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 20 issued 2334 UT on 06 Feb 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 7 10:34:56 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 06 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. On UT day 06 February, the solar wind became enhanced due
to a high speed stream from a negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole. The solar wind speed increased from 345 km/s to
620 km/s over the UT day. The total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum
of 11 nT at 06/0512 UT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) reached a minimum of -10 nT at 06/0516 UT. The solar wind
is expected to remain enhanced on 07 February due to the influence
of the CH HSS, then decrease on 08-09 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 23333243
Cocos Island 9 22222242
Darwin 10 13233232
Townsville 13 23333233
Learmonth 14 23333243
Alice Springs 14 13333243
Gingin 16 22233353
Canberra 12 13333233
Hobart 14 23334233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 12345232
Casey 29 45543443
Mawson 35 33633365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1112 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 12 Unsettled to Active
08 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 6 February were mainly
Quiet to Unsettled for the Australian region, with an isolated
Active period in the later half of UT day. Antarctic regions
experienced mainly Unsettled to Active conditions, with some
isolated Minor to Major Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain at Unsettled to Active levels on 07 February
due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity levels should
return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 08-09 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for
UT day 06 February with enhancements for both northern and southern
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods for southern hemisphere
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
08 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 06 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Minor MUF
depressions were observed in the Niue Island region during the
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites.
In the Australian region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions
on the next UT day, 07 February, then returning to near predicted
monthly values on UT days 08-09 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.5E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 93700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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