[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 6 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. On UT day 05 February, the solar wind speed varied between
330-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-7 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) between -6 and +5 nT. The
solar wind may become moderately enhanced on 06 February due
to a possible connection with a high speed stream from a south
polar extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12111101
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 11111100
Townsville 3 11211110
Learmonth 3 12121101
Alice Springs 2 11111101
Gingin 3 22111101
Canberra 3 12211011
Hobart 2 12211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11120000
Casey 16 44522211
Mawson 11 33232223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
07 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 05 February were Quiet
for the Australian region, with Antarctic regions experiencing
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with Casey station observing
Active to Minor Storm levels at the start of the UT day. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled levels,
with a chance of isolated Active periods, on 06 February if the
solar wind becomes enhanced due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic
activity levels should return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on
07-08 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for
UT day 05 February with enhancements for both northern and southern
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods for southern hemisphere
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 05 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Minor MUF
depressions were observed in the Cocos Island region during the
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at most sites.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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