[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 5 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 04 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. On UT day 04 February, the solar wind speed was between
340-390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-7 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) between -5 and +4 nT. The
solar wind may become moderately enhanced on either 05 or 06
February due to a possible connection with a high speed stream
from a south polar extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12122122
Cocos Island 4 11111122
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 5 22122121
Learmonth 5 11122122
Alice Springs 5 21122112
Gingin 5 02121123
Canberra 5 12122121
Hobart 4 12121121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 12131110
Casey 12 33422223
Mawson 17 34212335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1120 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active Periods
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active Periods
07 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 04 February were mainly
Quiet for the Australian region, with Antarctic regions experiencing
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods and
a Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet for 05 February, but may increase to Unsettled
levels, with a chance of isolated Active periods, in the later
half of 05 February or on 06 February if the solar wind becomes
enhanced due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity levels
should return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 07 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for
UT day 04 February with enhancements for both northern and southern
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods for southern hemisphere
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 04 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Minor MUF
depressions were observed in the Niue Island region during the
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at most sites.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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