[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Feb 2020

Tue Feb 4 10:31:20 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 03 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. On UT day 03 February, the solar wind speed gradually declined 
from around 400 km/s to 350 km/s, currently around 360 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-5 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) between +/-4 nT. The solar wind is 
expected to remain at ambient levels for the next UT day, 04 
February, then may become enhanced on either 05 or 06 February 
due to a possible connection with a high speed stream from a 
south polar extension coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   11000110
      Darwin               3   11110112
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            2   21100111
      Alice Springs        2   10110111
      Gingin               3   21101211
      Canberra             3   11211011
      Hobart               4   21211111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   11310000
      Casey               12   34421221
      Mawson               9   34221121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2110 0122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb     6    Quiet
05 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
06 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 03 February were Quiet 
for the Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet for 04 February, 
but may increase to Unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated 
Active periods, on 05 and 06 February if the solar wind becomes 
enhanced due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for 
UT day 03 February with enhancements for both northern and southern 
hemisphere as well as depressed periods for southern hemisphere 
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Feb    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 03 February 
were at either near predicted monthly values or enhanced for 
Equatorial and Australian regions. Minor MUFs depressions were 
observed at Equatorial stations during the local day and in the 
Southern Australian Region during the local night. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were observed at most sites. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    87800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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