[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 27 10:30:08 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 December. There
are currently two numbered solar regions on the visible disk;
AR 2794 (S18E01) and AR 2795 (S18E31). Number of sunspots on
AR 2795 has increased from 8 to 13 in the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low for 27 to 29 December,
with a remote chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day
26 December, the solar wind speed continued on a slow declining
trend, changing from 450 km/s to 410 km/s. Current speed is near
410 km/s. This is in response to the waning effect of a positive
northern polar coronal hole with equatorward extensions. The
total IMF (Bt) mostly steady near 3 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue on a slow declining trend and return
to nominal level over the next two UT days, 27 and 28 December,
as the coronal hole effect wanes further. Mild enhancement in
solar wind speed is possible on UT day 29 December, as a small
equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach a geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 2 11111101
Darwin 3 11112102
Townsville 4 21112112
Learmonth 4 21012112
Alice Springs 3 11012111
Gingin 2 21101101
Canberra 1 11001001
Hobart 2 11101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 16 45332122
Mawson 11 23212243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2201 2000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 26 December; quiet to active levels in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet for the next two UT days, 27-28 December. Mostly quiet
and at times unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 29 December
in response to a small equatorial coronal hole expected to start
affecting the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 27 to 29 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 26 December. Frequent strong sporadic
Es were observed at most Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 27 to 29 December. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to
continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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