[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 20 issued 2332 UT on 25 Dec 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 26 10:32:17 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 December, with 
only weak B-class flares. There are currently three numbered 
solar regions on the visible disk; AR 2794 (S18E24), AR 2795 
(S18E44) and AR 2793 (on the west limb). Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low for 26 to 28 December, with a remote chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph images. On UT day 25 December, the solar 
wind speed continued on a slow declining trend, changing from 
500 km/s to 440 km/s. Current speed is near 450 km/s. This is 
in response to the waning effect of a positive northern polar 
coronal hole with equatorward extensions. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied mostly in the range 2-5 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to continue to decline today, UT day 26 December, 
as the coronal hole effect wanes further. Mostly nominal solar 
wind conditions are expected on UT days 27 and 28 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212101
      Cocos Island         3   22111100
      Darwin               3   11212101
      Townsville           4   21212111
      Learmonth            3   11212100
      Alice Springs        3   11212101
      Gingin               3   21212100
      Canberra             3   11212101
      Hobart               4   22212101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   11102000
      Casey               14   44432111
      Mawson              11   43223311

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1322 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     7    Quiet
27 Dec     7    Quiet
28 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 25 December; quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic 
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly 
quiet for the next three UT days, 26-28 December. There remains 
a slight chance of an isolated unsettled period on 26 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal on 26 to 28 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 25 December. Frequent strong sporadic 
E was observed at most Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 26 to 28 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   248000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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