[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 25 10:30:08 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 December, with
only B-class flares. There are currently four numbered solar
regions on the visible disk; AR 2794 (S18E27), AR 2795 (S18E57),
AR 2792 (S30W76) and AR 2793 (S15W68). Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low for 25 to 27 December, with a small chance
of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph images. On UT day 24 December, the solar
wind speed increased from 520 km/s to 580 km/s during the early
part of the UT day and from thereon exhibited a slow declining
trend. Current speed is near 520 km/s. This moderately enhanced
solar wind conditions are in response to high solar speed streams
associated with the positive northern polar coronal hole with
equatorward extensions. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the
range 2-5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range
was mostly +2/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to begin
to gradually subside from today, UT day 25 December, as the coronal
hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 12233322
Cocos Island 3 11------
Darwin 8 12133312
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 11 22234312
Alice Springs 9 12233312
Gingin 11 21233422
Canberra 9 11233322
Hobart 10 11333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 11345311
Casey 24 45534322
Mawson 19 34334433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3423 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 7 Quiet
27 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24 December; quiet to minor storm levels in
the Antarctic region. The disturbed conditions were caused by
the moderately enhanced solar wind speed associated with the
coronal hole and the prolonged, though weak, IMF Bz southward
conditions between 24/0600 UT and 24/1500 UT. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled today,
UT day 25 December. There remains a slight chance of an isolated
active period on 25 December. Mostly quiet with a chance of unsettled
conditions are expected for UT days 26 and 27 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 25 to 27 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 24 December. Frequent strong sporadic
E was observed at most Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 25 to 27 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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