[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 28 10:30:08 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 December. There 
are currently two numbered solar regions on the visible disc, 
AR 2794 and AR 2795. Solar activity is expected to be mostly 
very low for 28 to 30 December, with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 27 December, the solar wind speed 
was moderately elevated, 410-520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range 
was 2-7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range 
was +6/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to vary between 
its nominal levels to moderately elevated ones on 28 and 29 December. 
In the second half of UT day 29 December and on 30 December the 
next moderate enhancement in the solar wind speed is possible 
as a small equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach a geoeffective 
location on the solar disc.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122122
      Cocos Island         4   22022111
      Darwin               7   22123122
      Townsville           9   32133122
      Learmonth            7   22132122
      Alice Springs        6   22122122
      Gingin               6   22122122
      Canberra             6   22222122
      Hobart               7   13222122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   12102011
      Casey               22   35533233
      Mawson              16   44332233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0100 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     7    Quiet
29 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 27 December; quiet to minor storm levels were 
seen in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet for the next UT day, 28 December, 
and the first half of 29 December. In the second half of UT day 
29 December and on 30 December global geomagnetic activity may 
increase to unsettled levels with possible isolated active periods 
in response to a small equatorial coronal hole expected to start 
affecting the Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal for 28 and and the first half of 29 December. Moderate 
degradations are possible in the second half of UT day 29 December 
and on 30 December due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.   
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 27 December. Strong sporadic Es were 
observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 28 to 30 December. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to 
continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    71900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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