[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Dec 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 10 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 December. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2789,
2790, and 2791. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance of C-class flares during the next three UT days,
10-12 December. On UT day 09 December,the solar wind speed was
mostly near its nominal levels, varying in the range 350-470
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 4-9 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase up to 600 km/s or higher levels later
today or on 10 December, when the 7 December CME will arrive.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/0550UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22111232
Cocos Island 5 22111230
Darwin 6 12111232
Townsville 8 23211232
Learmonth 6 22111232
Alice Springs 6 12111232
Gingin 5 21110232
Canberra 5 12210222
Hobart 5 12210222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12100221
Casey 21 35532332
Mawson 15 34321343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 35 Active to Minor Storm
11 Dec 25 Active to Minor Storm
12 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 December
and is current for 9-10 Dec. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on 09 December; quiet
to minor storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active and
minor storm levels on 10 December due to combined effects of
the coronal hole and CME. Isolated major storm levels are also
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected on 10-11
December due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
12 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 09 December. Mild to moderate enhancements
were seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly between
near predicted monthly values and moderately enhanced levels
for the next UT day, 10 December. Then, on 11-12 December, MUFs
are expected to return to monthly predicted levels with possible
mild to moderate depressions. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are expected on 10-11 December due to predicted increase in the
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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