[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 9 10:31:40 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 December. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disc, 2787,
2789, 2790, and 2791; they remained relatively stable. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance of C-class
flares during the next three UT days, 09-11 December. On UT day
08 December,the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels,
varying mostly in the range 340-420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied mostly in the range 2-7 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-4 nT. On 9 December, the
solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal levels
until a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative
polarity coronal hole and the 7 December CME arrive; then the
solar wind speed can increase up to 600 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 01110110
Darwin 3 1--11111
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 3 11121111
Alice Springs 1 00111101
Gingin 1 10110011
Canberra 2 02211001
Hobart 2 11121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01021001
Casey 12 35322111
Mawson 10 34122123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 35 Active to Minor Storm
10 Dec 25 Active to Minor Storm
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 December
and is current for 9-10 Dec. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 08 December; mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to active
and minor storm levels on 09 December due to combined effects
of the coronal hole and CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
09-11 December due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 35 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
11 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 08 December. Mild enhancements were
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly between near
predicted monthly values and moderately enhanced levels for the
next UT day, 09 December. Then, on 10-11 December, MUFs are expected
to return to monthly predicted levels with possible mild to moderate
depressions. Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
on 09-11 December due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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