[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 8 10:31:44 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 07 December with a
single C7 flare from the region 2790 (now at S24W11) peaking
at 1632UT. The other three numbered regions (2787, 2789, and
2791) remained relatively stable. There was a CME associated
with the abovementioned flare. Preliminary analysis shows that
it can arrive at Earth at the beginning of 9 December. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three
UT days, 08-10 December. On UT day 07 December,the solar wind
speed was near its nominal levels, varying in the range 310-420
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the range 2-7 nT and
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal
levels until 09 December when Earth is expected to connect with
a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity
coronal hole and the CME is expected to arrive; then the solar
wind speed can increase up to 600 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11110100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 1 11110100
Townsville 2 2111010-
Learmonth 2 11110201
Alice Springs 1 10110100
Gingin 1 10100100
Canberra 1 10110100
Hobart 1 10210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 12 34431111
Mawson 5 21221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 7 Quiet
09 Dec 30 Active to Minor Storm
10 Dec 25 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 07 December; quiet to active conditions were observed
in Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain mostly quiet during the next UT day, 08 December. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase to active and minor storm levels
on 09 December due to combined effects of the coronal hole and
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next UT day, 08 December. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are expected for 09-10 December due to predicted increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 07 December. Mild enhancements were
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next UT day, 08 December. Mild to moderate
enhancements are expected on 09 December. Degraded HF propagation
conditions are expected on 09-10 December due to predicted increase
in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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