[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 7 10:31:36 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 06 December with a 
single C1 flares from region 2790(S23W01) at 1327UT. There are 
currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2790 and 
2791(S17E37). These two regions remained relatively stable with 
simple magnetic complexity. Several active filaments in the southern 
hemisphere are monitored for any eruption. No Earth directed 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next three UT days, 07-09 December. 
On UT day 06 December,the solar wind speed was near its nominal 
levels, under 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
2-7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was 
mostly +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near 
its nominal levels until 09 December when earth is expected to 
connect with High Solar Stream(HSS) from a negative polarity 
coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected to enhance to 
moderate levels on UT day 09 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122122
      Cocos Island         3   11011122
      Darwin               5   21122122
      Townsville           5   21122122
      Learmonth            5   21121122
      Alice Springs        5   21122122
      Gingin               4   21111122
      Canberra             5   11222112
      Hobart               4   21222011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   11122011
      Casey               17   44432133
      Mawson              17   33213254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0000 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec     5    Quiet
08 Dec     5    Quiet
09 Dec    12    Quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated 
                active periods.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region today 06 December and are expected to remain so for the 
next two days, 07-08 December. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to unsettled levels on 09 December with a chance 
of isolated active periods due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 07-09 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 06 December. Sporadic E blanketing 
was observed at Brisbane, between 06/00-03 UT and Hobart between 
06/00-04 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 
07-09 December. Sporadic E blanketing is expected to continue 
over the next three UT days, 07-09 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    57300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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