[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 11 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 83/24 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 December. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2790
and 2791. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance of C-class flares during the next three UT days,
11-13 December. At the beginning of the UT day 10 December, most
of the solar wind parameters were near their nominal levels.
The solar wind speed was mildly enhanced, 450-480 km/s. A shock
wave has arrived at 10/0130 UT and the solar wind speed reached
570 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 16 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -10/+11 nT. Then
the solar wind speed and Bt gradually decreased to 450-490 km/s
and 3-8 nT, respectively, while Bz was predominately positive,
greatly reducing geomagnetic activity. During the next three
UT days, 11-13 December, the solar wind speed is expected to
return to its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 42112112
Cocos Island 5 32111112
Darwin 7 42111112
Townsville 8 42212112
Learmonth 10 52112112
Alice Springs 5 32111012
Gingin 6 32112013
Canberra 7 42212012
Hobart 6 32212012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 32101001
Casey 28 55633123
Mawson 16 44212144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1220 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 7 Quiet
13 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: In the SWS magnetometer data for 10 Dec, a weak (7 nT)
impulse was observed at 0209UT. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on 10 December;
mostly quiet to minor storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. Upon the shock arrival at 10/0130 UT, IMF Bz remained
predominantly northward, greatly reducing geomagnetic activity.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
during the next three UT days, 11-13 December. Unsettled periods
are likely on 11 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 11-13 December. As a consequence of the recent increase in
geomagnetic activity, mild to moderate depressions are likely,
especially at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
12 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
13 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 10 December. Mild enhancements were
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 11-13 December. Mild
to moderate depressions are likely as a consequence of the recent
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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