[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 4 10:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 03 December.
Two low C-class flares were observed, a C1.7 (0156 UT) from region
2786 (currently at S19W52) and a C1.2 (1000 UT) from region 2790
(currently at S23E36). A slow CME has also been released with
the C1.2 flare from region 2790. This slow CME has a good possibility
to hit the earth late on UT day 07 Dec or early on 08 December
giving mild to moderate strengthening to the solar wind stream.
Through UT day 03 December, the solar wind speed varied mostly
between around 360 and 420 km/s. During this day, the total IMF
(Bt) varied in the ranges 3 to 6 nT and its north-south component
(Bz) in the range +5/-4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to show
a gradual decline to more nominal values through UT day 04 December
and stay at nominal levels through UT days 05 and 06 December.
However, there is a possibility for the CME of 01 December to
give a glancing interaction for a short time, probably on UT
day 5 December and cause minor strengthening in the solar wind
stream. Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels
for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 December with a good chance
of more C-class flares and some chance of M-class flares. ACE
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
03/1455UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 10002201
Cocos Island 2 11001200
Darwin 2 00002201
Townsville 3 11002211
Learmonth 3 10002301
Alice Springs 2 00002201
Gingin 2 10002201
Canberra 2 10002210
Hobart 2 11002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00012100
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 5 21102321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1020 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled and active periods
possible
05 Dec 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled and active periods
possible
06 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region were
observed on UT day 03 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
are expected for UT days 04 to 06 December. However, there is
small possibility of geomagnetic conditions to rise to unsettled
and possibly active levels on 04 or 05 December if the CME of
01 December gives a glancing blow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to mild enhancements during UT day 03 December.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06
December. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to mild enhancements during
UT day 03 December. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 December. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 94900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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