[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 20 issued 2333 UT on 02 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 3 10:33:05 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 02 December.
Two B-class flares were observed from region 2790 (currently
at S23E51). The CME of 01 December is unlikely to hit the earth,
but the possibility can not be completely ruled out. Through
UT day 02 December, the solar wind speed varied mostly between
around 390 and 450 km/s. During this day, the total IMF (Bt)
varied in the ranges 2 to 7 nT and its north-south component
(Bz) in the range +6/-3 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to show
a gradual decline through UT day 03 December and stay at nominal
levels through UT days 04 and 05 December. However, there is
a small possibility for the CME of 01 December to give a glancing
interaction for a short time, probably on UT day 5 December.
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate level for
the next three UT days, 03 to 05 December with a good chance
of more C-class flares and some chance of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 3 21110121
Learmonth 2 10110111
Alice Springs 1 10100011
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 1 01100010
Hobart 1 10110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 10 23421222
Mawson 6 32211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 10 Mostly quiet, some unsettled and active periods
possible
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region were
observed on UT day 02 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
are expected for UT day 03 to 05 December. There is small possibility
of geomagnetic conditions to rise to unsettled and possibly active
levels on 05 December if the CME of 01 December gives a glancing
blow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to mild enhancements during UT day 02 December.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 03 - 05 December.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to mild enhancements during
UT day 02 December. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced levels
for the next three UT days, 03 - 05 December. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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