[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 20 issued 2347 UT on 01 Dec 2020

Wed Dec 2 10:47:11 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 104/53

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 01 December. 
Two C-class flares were observed. A C1.2 flare from region 2787, 
that peaked at 0721UT/01 December, also produced a CME. This 
CME is unlikely to hit the earth, but the possibility can not 
be completely ruled out. Through UT day 01 December, the solar 
wind speed varied between around 570 and 410 km/s, showing an 
overall declining trend. During this day, the total IMF (Bt) 
varied in the ranges 3 to 5 nT and its north-south component 
(Bz) in the range +4/-2 nT, staying positive for most parts of 
the day. Solar wind speed is expected to show a gradual decline 
through UT day 02 December and stay at nominal levels through 
UT days 03 and 04 December. However, there is a small possibility 
for the CME of 29 November to give a weak glancing blow to the 
earth early on 02 December and possibly slightly strengthen the 
solar wind stream for a short time. Solar activity is expected 
to be at low to moderate level for the next three UT days, 02 
to 04 December with a good chance of more C-class flares and 
some chance of M-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   10000001
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               1   20000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   33322212
      Mawson               5   32011003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1322 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    10    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled or active periods 
                possible
03 Dec     5    Quiet
04 Dec     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region were 
observed on UT day 01 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT day 02 and 04 December. There is small possibility 
of geomagnetic conditions to rise to active levels on 02 December 
if the CME of 29 November hits the earth and to unsettled levels 
on 04 December if the CME of 01 December hits the earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 01 December. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
02 - 04 December. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 
three days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Dec    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec     8    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 29 
November and is current for 30 Nov to 2 Dec. MUFs in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
01 December. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced levels for the 
next three UT days, 02 - 04 December. Shortwave fadeouts are 
possible over the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 514 km/sec  Density:   10.2 p/cc  Temp:   223000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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