[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 20 issued 2333 UT on 04 Dec 2020

Sat Dec 5 10:33:38 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  96/43

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              92/37              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 04 December with a 
C1 flare from region 2790(S23E24) early UT day (03/2359UT). There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2785(S22W82), 
2786(S19W64) and 2790. All these regions are of simple magnetic 
complexity(Alpha). Several active filaments in the southern hemisphere 
are monitored for any eruption. No Earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available coronagraphic imagery up to 04/1648UT. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three 
UT days, 05-07 December with a slight chance of an isolated M-class 
flare. DSCOVR data showed some anomalies during last 24 hours. 
Based on the reliable data, the solar wind speed was slightly 
enhanced, varying in the range 350-420km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
was around 5 nT the north-south component (Bz) was mostly northward. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background 
levels over the next three days, 05-07 December. However, the 
CME of 01 December may glance Earth and slightly enhance the 
solar wind speed sometime today, 05 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               0   10000000
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            0   00000101
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   33322121
      Mawson               1   10000111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec    12    Quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled to 
                active periods.
06 Dec     7    Mostly Quiet
07 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the 
Antarctic region on 04 December. Mostly quiet conditions are 
expected for the next three days, 05-07 December with a chance 
of isolated unsettled to active periods due to weak CME effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 05-07 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Dec    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec    20    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly enhanced to 
near predicted monthly values during UT day 04 December. Sporadic 
E blanketing was observed at some sites. Similar ionospheric 
support is expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 December 
with a slight chance of a Shortwave fadeout.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    91700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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