[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 30 09:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 30 August to 01 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day
28 August, the solar wind speed varied between 480 and 520 km/s,
the total IMF Bt varied between 3 and 6 nT, IMF Bz varied in
the range +3/-5 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between
6 and 9 ppcc during most parts of this UT day. On UT days 30
August to 01 September, the solar wind stream is expected to
stay strengthened due to the influence of northern hemisphere
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 12332231
Cocos Island 6 11221231
Darwin 6 12222122
Townsville 9 12332231
Learmonth 9 22232232
Alice Springs 8 12232231
Gingin 8 11331231
Canberra 7 12321231
Hobart 8 12331231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 13451121
Casey 13 22331252
Mawson 45 44533376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 1012 3533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 14 Quiet to Active
31 Aug 14 Quiet to Active
01 Sep 14 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian regions and Quiet to Active with isolated Minor Storm
periods in the Antarctic regions on UT day 29 August. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary from Quiet to Active
levels on UT days 30 August to 01 September due to coronal hole
influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly to moderately enhanced
values on UT day 29 August. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 30 August
to 01 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 7 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Aug 7 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Sep 7 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 29
August. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
to mildly elevated values on UT days 30 August to 01 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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