[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 31 09:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 31 August to 02 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day
30 August, the solar wind speed varied between 450 and 500 km/s,
the total IMF Bt varied between 3 and 7 nT, IMF Bz varied in
the range +5/-6 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between
6 and 12 ppcc during most parts of this UT day. On UT days 31
August to 02 September, the solar wind stream is expected to
stay strengthened due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 13212212
Cocos Island 4 03201111
Darwin 6 13212211
Townsville 7 13212312
Learmonth 8 13212322
Alice Springs 7 13212311
Gingin 6 12212222
Canberra 6 03113212
Hobart 7 13113212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 02223211
Casey 12 34322312
Mawson 40 36423347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 2343 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 12 Quiet to Active
01 Sep 14 Mostly Unsettled to Active
02 Sep 14 Mostly Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian regions and Quiet to Active with isolated Minor Storm
periods in the Antarctic regions on UT day 30 August. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary from Quiet to Active
levels on UT days 31 August to 02 September due to coronal hole
influences.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly to moderately enhanced
values on UT day 30 August. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 31 August
to 02 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 8 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Sep 6 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Sep 6 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 30
August. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
to mildly elevated values on UT days 31 August to 02 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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