[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 29 09:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 29-31 August. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 28 August, the
solar wind speed stayed around 410 km/s until 0900 UT and then
showed a gradual increase to 500 km/s by 2300 UT, the total IMF
Bt varied between 4 and 10 nT, IMF Bz stayed mostly between +/-2
nT by 0800 UT and then fluctuated in the range +/-8 nT. The solar
wind particle density varied between 3 and 16 ppcc during most
parts of this UT day. On UT days 29-31 August, the solar wind
is expected to become further enhanced due to the influence of
northern hemisphere coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Mostly quiet
to active, isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 00022412
Cocos Island 5 00012411
Darwin 6 01112412
Townsville 6 11023312
Learmonth 10 01123511
Alice Springs 6 00022412
Gingin 9 00022521
Canberra 6 00022412
Hobart 6 00022412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 00033511
Casey 11 23322422
Mawson 17 21113535
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2121 4122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 14 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
30 Aug 16 Unsettled to Active
31 Aug 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with isolated
Minor Storm periods in the Australian and Antarctic regions on
UT day 28 August. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT days 29 to 31 August
due to coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly to moderately enhanced
values on UT day 28 August. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 29 to
31 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 28
August. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
to mildly elevated values on UT days 29 to 31 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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