[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 28 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 28-30 August. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24 hours, the
solar wind speed varied between 400 to 450 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) ranged between 2 to 7 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) varied
between -6 to +4 nT. On UT days 28-30 August, the solar wind
is expected to become further enhanced due to the influence of
several northern hemisphere coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21113110
Cocos Island 4 21113110
Darwin 5 21113111
Townsville 4 01123111
Learmonth 6 31223110
Alice Springs 4 20113111
Gingin 7 30114120
Canberra 4 21113100
Hobart 6 21114110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 20225000
Casey 12 43224121
Mawson 18 43233235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2312 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 10 Quiet to Active
29 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region on UT day 27 August, with an isolated Active
period observed at higher latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated Active
to Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT days 28-30 August
due to coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 27 August.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly
elevated values on UT days 28-30 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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