[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 27 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 27-29 August. No CMEs were observed in the available
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind became moderately
enhanced due to coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed increased
from 350 to 480 km/s, currently around 430 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) reached a maximum of 8.5 nT at 26/0224 UT and is currently
around 3 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +5
nT. On UT day 27 August, the solar wind enhancements should decrease,
but the solar wind is expected to become enhanced again on UT
days 28-29 August due to the influence of several northern hemisphere
coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12120211
Cocos Island 4 12121210
Darwin 4 12121211
Townsville 5 22121211
Learmonth 4 12220210
Alice Springs 3 12120210
Gingin 4 12120211
Canberra 4 12130200
Hobart 5 12130211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 01140111
Casey 11 23321341
Mawson 15 23222335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 26 August, with an isolated Unsettled period
observed at higher latitudes. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated Active
periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet
to Unsettled on UT day 27 August, then increase to Unsettled
to Active levels on UT days 28-29 August due to coronal hole
influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 27-29 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 26 August.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly
elevated values on UT days 27-29 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 31800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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