[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 26 09:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 26-28 August. No CMEs were observed in the available
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied between
320-380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-7 nT, and the
north-south IMF (Bz) varied between -3 to +5 nT. On UT day 26
August, the solar wind may become mildly enhanced due to the
possible influence of a northern polar coronal hole, returning
to near background levels on 27 August. The solar wind is expected
to become mildly enhanced again, on UT day 28 August, due to
the influence of a lower latitude northern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100010
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 2 12100111
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 1 11100110
Alice Springs 1 11000010
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 0 10000010
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 7 10110115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
active periods
27 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 25 August. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity
may increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 26-27 August,
with a chance of isolated active periods on 26 August, if the
high speed stream from the northern polar coronal hole impacts
Earth. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to
Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 28 August due to the influence
of another coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 26-28 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 25 August.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 26-28
August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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