[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 25 09:31:35 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 August. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 25-27 August. No CMEs were observed in the available 
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed declined 
from 415 to 340 km/s, currently around 370 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 1-4 nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) varied 
between +/-3 nT. On UT day 25 August, the solar wind is expected 
to become mildly enhanced due to a Northern polar coronal hole 
with a weak equatorward extension. The solar wind is expected 
to remain mildly enhanced on UT day 26 August, returning to near 
background levels by 27 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   12100001
      Learmonth            1   20100000
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   23200000
      Mawson               6   23201212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2211 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug    11    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated active 
                periods
26 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 24 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 
25-26 August, with a chance of isolated active periods on 25 
August, due to coronal hole effects, returning to mainly quiet 
conditions on UT day 27 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 25-27 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 24 August. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 25-27 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    62200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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