[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 20 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 22 09:30:50 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 August. There
are two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2771 and AR2772;
the regions are spotless. No CMEs were observed in the available
images. Solar wind parameters have been at background levels
with speed range 300-345 km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 1-5 nT, and
the north-south IMF (Bz) range +3/-5 nT. Very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 August.
Recurrent coronal hole wind streams are expected to moderately
elevate solar wind parameters on 22 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Cocos Island 3 11200121
Darwin 2 11100121
Townsville 4 21111121
Learmonth 2 11100121
Alice Springs 2 10000121
Gingin 2 11100121
Canberra 1 01000111
Hobart 2 11000121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 4 22200122
Mawson 15 21200164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 43 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 7 Quiet
24 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT day 21
August. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to
unsettled on 22 August; the increase is due to possible coronal
hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23-24 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 22-24 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced values on UT day
21 August. Spread F were observed during night hours at Darwin,
Townsville, Learmonth, and Norfolk Is. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 22-24 August. Mild enhancements are likely on 22 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 12400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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