[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 23 09:31:32 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 August. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2771 
and AR2772; the regions are spotless and both located near the 
west limb. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for 
the next three UT days, 23-25 August. No CMEs were observed in 
the available images. Solar wind parameters have been at background 
levels with speed range 330-360 km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 2-7 
nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +5/-5 nT. The three day 
outlook (23-25 August) is for the solar wind to be mostly near 
background to mildly enhanced levels as a Northern polar coronal 
hole with a weak equatorward extension approaches geoeffective 
location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221221
      Cocos Island         3   11210210
      Darwin               5   11221221
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth            6   12221321
      Alice Springs        5   02221221
      Gingin               5   11220321
      Canberra             4   11221211
      Hobart               6   12221311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   01321110
      Casey                7   22221322
      Mawson              17   23331254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1001 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     7    Quiet
24 Aug     7    Quiet
25 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 22 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 23 and 24 August, with 
an isolated chance of unsettled conditions; the increase is due 
to possible coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are 
expected on 25 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 23-25 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 22 August. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 23-25 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    16800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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