[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 23 09:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 August. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2771
and AR2772; the regions are spotless and both located near the
west limb. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next three UT days, 23-25 August. No CMEs were observed in
the available images. Solar wind parameters have been at background
levels with speed range 330-360 km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 2-7
nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +5/-5 nT. The three day
outlook (23-25 August) is for the solar wind to be mostly near
background to mildly enhanced levels as a Northern polar coronal
hole with a weak equatorward extension approaches geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12221221
Cocos Island 3 11210210
Darwin 5 11221221
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 6 12221321
Alice Springs 5 02221221
Gingin 5 11220321
Canberra 4 11221211
Hobart 6 12221311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 01321110
Casey 7 22221322
Mawson 17 23331254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 7 Quiet
24 Aug 7 Quiet
25 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 22 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 23 and 24 August, with
an isolated chance of unsettled conditions; the increase is due
to possible coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 25 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 23-25 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 22 August.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 23-25
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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