[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 August. AR2772
at N18W57 produced a B1 sub-flare at 20/0630 UT and appears to
be decaying. No CMEs were observed in the available images. The
CME impact has not eventuated. Solar wind parameters have been
at background levels with speed range 294 to 326 km/s, total
IMF 1 to 4 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +/-2 nT. Very
low to low levels of solar activity are expected for the next
three days, 21 to 23 August. No regions expected to return. A
recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected to moderately
elevate wind parameters late on 21 or 22 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 12000001
Townsville 1 11001011
Learmonth 1 11001000
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Gingin 1 11001000
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 0 00011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 2 22111000
Mawson 11 11111154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3300 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with chance of an isolated
active period later.
22 Aug 10 Mostly unsettled. Possible isolated active periods.
23 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The expected CME disturbance has not eventuated. Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet in the Australian and Antarctic regions
on UT day 20 August. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
at first, becoming unsettled with possible isolated active conditions
later on 21 or 22 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
expected 23 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 21 to 23 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 20 August.
Spread F observed during night hours at Darwin, Townsville, Learmonth,
Brisbane, Norfolk Is. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 08-09,
16-21 UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 21 to 23 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 31500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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