[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 8 09:31:58 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 August. Spotted
region 2770 at N22 E16 appears stable. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 August. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images during
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed range was 409 to 495
km/s, mostly declining on 07 August. The total IMF (Bt) range
was 4 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters may be slightly enhanced on 08
August due to weak coronal hole effects and near background levels
09 to 10 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Gingin 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 9 43100114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 8 Quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day, 07 August. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected 08 to 10 August. Possible isolated unsettled periods
on 08 August due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 07
August. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values 08 to 10 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 332000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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