[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 7 09:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 August. There 
are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
07-09 August. No Earthward-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. During 
UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed range was 400 km/s to 
530 km/s, in response to coronal hole effects. The total IMF 
(Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) 
varied mainly between +3/-3 nT. The outlook for today (UT day 
07 August) is for the solar wind to continue on its gradual decline 
towards the nominal level. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions 
are expected on UT day 08 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01101101
      Cocos Island         1   01101101
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville           3   11111102
      Learmonth            2   01101202
      Alice Springs        1   00001101
      Gingin               3   01102212
      Canberra             1   01001101
      Hobart               2   01111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                9   23312312
      Mawson              11   13112225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2200 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug     5    Quiet
08 Aug     5    Quiet
09 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, geomagnetic conditions were at 
quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, with 
one isolated minor storm period. Mostly quiet conditions with 
possible isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next 
three UT days (07-09 August)

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 06 
August. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values for the next 
three UT days, 07-09 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   319000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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