[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 7 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 August. There
are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
07-09 August. No Earthward-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. During
UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed range was 400 km/s to
530 km/s, in response to coronal hole effects. The total IMF
(Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
varied mainly between +3/-3 nT. The outlook for today (UT day
07 August) is for the solar wind to continue on its gradual decline
towards the nominal level. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions
are expected on UT day 08 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 01101101
Cocos Island 1 01101101
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11111102
Learmonth 2 01101202
Alice Springs 1 00001101
Gingin 3 01102212
Canberra 1 01001101
Hobart 2 01111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 9 23312312
Mawson 11 13112225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2200 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 06 August, geomagnetic conditions were at
quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, with
one isolated minor storm period. Mostly quiet conditions with
possible isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next
three UT days (07-09 August)
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 06
August. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values for the next
three UT days, 07-09 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 319000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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