[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 6 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 August. There
are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
06-08 August. No Earthward-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. During
UT day 05 August, the solar wind speed continued on a declining
trend, changing from 600 km/s to 430 km/s, in response to the
waning effect of a northern polar coronal hole with extension
in the mid latitude region. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-5
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mainly between
+4/-3 nT. The outlook for today (UT day 06 August) is for the
solar wind to continue on its gradual decline towards the nominal
level. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected on UT
day 07 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 11010111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 3 11111021
Alice Springs 2 02101011
Gingin 4 11101132
Canberra 1 01101011
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 9 22221422
Mawson 35 33321276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2422 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 05 August, geomagnetic conditions were at
quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels, with
one isolated storm period. Mostly quiet conditions with possible
isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next three UT
days (06-08 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 05
August. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values for the next
three UT days, 06-08 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 637 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 485000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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