[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 5 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 August. There
are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
05-07 August, with an isolated chance of C-class flares due to
recent flaring activity on AR2770. AR2770 is currently located
at N22E58. A CME first observed starting at 03/2147 UT (SDO AIA_171,
GONG_HALPHA, LASCO C2 coronagraph images) is associated with
a North West limb side event. Based on the location of the source,
this CME will not impact the earth. No other CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours.
During UT day 04 August, the solar wind speed decreased from
750 km/s to 570 km/s. This is in response to high speed streams
emanating from a northern polar coronal hole with extension in
the mid latitude region. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-5 nT,
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mainly between
+3/-3 nT. The two-day outlook (UT day 05 and 06 August) is for
the solar wind to gradually decline towards its nominal level
as the coronal hole effect begins to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 23221101
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 4 22211101
Townsville 5 23221101
Learmonth 7 23222112
Alice Springs 5 13221101
Gingin 6 22222112
Canberra 4 13121101
Hobart 7 2320----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 23232000
Casey 11 43332112
Mawson 26 45343245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 4433 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 04 August, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active levels. These mildly
disturbed magnetic conditions were in response to coronal hole
effects. On UT day 05 August, the global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a little chance
of isolated active periods as the earth is still under the influence
of high solar wind streams associated with the coronal hole.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected with possible isolated unsettled
periods on the subsequent UT day (06 August).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days. Some degradations are possible in
high latitude regions on 05 August, aftermath of the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 04 August. Sporadic E were observed over some sites. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly to mildly enhanced values for the next three UT days,
05-07 August. Some MUF degradations are possible today 05 August
in the Antarctic region, in response to the recent increase in
the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 610 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 389000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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