[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 9 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 August with spotted 
region AR2770 at N23 E10 producing a C1.5 flare at 0349 UT. Very 
low to low solar activity is expected for 09 to 11 August. No 
returning regions expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range 
was 339 to 466 km/s on 08 August with the total IMF (Bt) range 
3 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +3 to 
-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be near background 
levels 09 to 11 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12212000
      Cocos Island         2   12111000
      Darwin               2   12201000
      Townsville           3   12211100
      Learmonth            3   12212000
      Alice Springs        2   12211000
      Gingin               2   11112000
      Canberra             2   11212000
      Hobart               3   12212100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   01212100
      Casey                6   23321100
      Mawson              13   43221243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1100 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     7    Quiet
10 Aug     7    Quiet
11 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian 
region on UT day, 08 August. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions are 
expected 09 to 11 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 09 to 11 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    10    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day 08 
August. Sporadic E observed during night at Darwin, during afternoon 
at Townsville and Norfolk Is., and pre-dawn at Canberra, Sydney, 
Townsville. Night spread F at Brisbane, Learmonth. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values to mildly enhanced, 09 to 11 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   289000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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