[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 20 issued 2357 UT on 17 Apr 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 18 09:57:14 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 17 April. The 
visible disc is spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next three days, 18-20 April. During the last 
24 hours, the solar wind was undisturbed with wind speed between 
290 and 355 km/s, total IMF (Bt) 5 nT or less, and a north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range of -4 nT to +3 nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be mostly near background levels for the next 
two days, 18-19 Apr with slightly elevated conditions on 20 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11011001
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Gingin               1   11001001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   11111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   11021000
      Casey                5   23211002
      Mawson              14   42223115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     5    Quiet
19 Apr     5    Quiet
20 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was at 
quiet levels on UT day, 17 April. Geomagnetic activity in the 
Antarctic region was mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next 
two days, 18-19 April. Quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated 
active period possible on 20 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some degradations in MUFs in mid to high southern hemisphere. 
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 18-20 Apr. Mild degradations at high-latitudes 
possible over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 95% aat times during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements 
for the Australian region on UT day, 17 Apr. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were observed at Darwin 06-14 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions 
are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for 
the next three UT days, 18 to 20 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.4E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    30500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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