[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 20 issued 2357 UT on 17 Apr 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 18 09:57:14 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 17 April. The
visible disc is spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three days, 18-20 April. During the last
24 hours, the solar wind was undisturbed with wind speed between
290 and 355 km/s, total IMF (Bt) 5 nT or less, and a north-south
IMF component (Bz) range of -4 nT to +3 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be mostly near background levels for the next
two days, 18-19 Apr with slightly elevated conditions on 20 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11011001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Gingin 1 11001001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11021000
Casey 5 23211002
Mawson 14 42223115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
20 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was at
quiet levels on UT day, 17 April. Geomagnetic activity in the
Antarctic region was mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next
two days, 18-19 April. Quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
active period possible on 20 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations in MUFs in mid to high southern hemisphere.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 18-20 Apr. Mild degradations at high-latitudes
possible over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 95% aat times during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 17 Apr. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed at Darwin 06-14 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions
are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for
the next three UT days, 18 to 20 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.4E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 30500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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