[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 17 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 16 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
17-19 April. A CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery starting
at 16/1424 UT is a far-side event or a east limb event. Based
on the location of the CME on the Sun, it will not impact the
Earth. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 450 km/s to 310 km/s, in response to the waning
effect of the coronal holes. The total IMF (Bt) was in range
2 nT to 5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range -2 nT to +1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly remain near its background levels for the next three
days, 17-19 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11100110
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 21101110
Learmonth 1 11100110
Alice Springs 1 11100110
Gingin 2 11101110
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 2 11111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 7 33211221
Mawson 16 53321333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3221 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was at
quiet levels through UT day, 16 April. Geomagnetic activity in
the Antarctic region was mostly at quiet to active levels with
an isolated short minor storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three days,
17-19 April, and occasionally may reach unsettled levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 17-19 April. Mild degradation may
happen in high-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 16 April. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are
expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 17 to 19 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 82000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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