[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 19 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 18 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days, 19-21 April. The visible disc has been spotless and there
are no returning regions expected. A small, disappearing filament
at S26W09 was observed at 1858 UT in SDO AIA 304 images; the
event was less evident in H-alpha. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available images. During the last 24 hours, the
solar wind was undisturbed with wind speed between 309 and 354
km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 1 to 6 nT, and a north-south IMF component
(Bz) range of -6 nT to +3 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be mostly near background levels on 19 Apr with somewhat elevated
conditions in the latter half of 20 Apr due to a lower latitude
coronal hole high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12210000
Darwin 3 22210001
Townsville 3 12211001
Learmonth 3 22210000
Alice Springs 2 12210001
Gingin 1 11101000
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 3 11221100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00221000
Casey 5 22321100
Mawson 9 34321210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2012 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 5 Quiet
20 Apr 11 Unsettled
21 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to isolated active periods expected in latter
part of 20 and 21 Apr due to coronal hole high speed stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 19-21 Apr. Mild degradations possible
on 21 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 18 Apr. Sporadic-E was observed
at Niue 03-17 UT, Darwin and Townsville 07-10 UT, Sydney 01-05
UT and 14-16 UT, Canberra 12-18 UT. Spread F observed at Cocos
16-20 UT, Norfolk 12-18 UT. MUFs in the Australian regions are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next
three days, 19 to 21 Apr with possible mild depressions in MUFs
on 21 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 22400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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