[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 6 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 05 Apr, with no flares.
There is currently one numbered region on the visible disc, region
2759 located near N28W10 at 05/2300 UT. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next three UT days (06-08 Apr). No earth-directed
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. During the last
24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s and 440
km/s, declining in general. The solar wind speed at the time
of writing this report was 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 nT and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range -2 nT to +5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain near its nominal levels for the next 3 UT days (06-08
Apr).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21111100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 3 22110101
Townsville 3 22121100
Learmonth 3 21111101
Alice Springs 2 21110100
Gingin 2 20111101
Canberra 1 11110000
Hobart 3 11122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 10111000
Casey 11 44421100
Mawson 13 32222225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 5 Quiet
08 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the Australian
region on UT day 05 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed quiet to
unsettled levels. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled
periods are expected for the Australian region over the next
3 days UT days (06-08 Apr).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly to mildly enhanced level over most Australian sites on
UT day 05 Apr. Mild MUFs depressions were observed over Niue
island during local day. Sporadic E observed at some Australian
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 Apr, for the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 99400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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