[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 6 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 05 Apr, with no flares. 
There is currently one numbered region on the visible disc, region 
2759 located near N28W10 at 05/2300 UT. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low for the next three UT days (06-08 Apr). No earth-directed 
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. During the last 
24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s and 440 
km/s, declining in general. The solar wind speed at the time 
of writing this report was 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2 nT and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied in the range -2 nT to +5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain near its nominal levels for the next 3 UT days (06-08 
Apr).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111100
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               3   22110101
      Townsville           3   22121100
      Learmonth            3   21111101
      Alice Springs        2   21110100
      Gingin               2   20111101
      Canberra             1   11110000
      Hobart               3   11122100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   10111000
      Casey               11   44421100
      Mawson              13   32222225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2101 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     5    Quiet
07 Apr     5    Quiet
08 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the Australian 
region on UT day 05 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed quiet to 
unsettled levels. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled 
periods are expected for the Australian region over the next 
3 days UT days (06-08 Apr).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 06-08 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly to mildly enhanced level over most Australian sites on 
UT day 05 Apr. Mild MUFs depressions were observed over Niue 
island during local day. Sporadic E observed at some Australian 
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three UT days, 06-08 Apr, for the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    99400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list