[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 20 issued 2333 UT on 04 Apr 2020

Sun Apr 5 09:33:19 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 04 Apr. There is currently 
one numbered region on the visible disc, region 2759 located 
near N28E03 at 04/2300 UT. This regions has produced a few weak 
B-class flares during the last 24 hours, the strongest B4.2 produced 
at 04/0052 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low for 
the next three UT days (05-07 Apr), with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. No earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph 
imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged 
between 410 km/s and 450 km/s, declining in general. The solar 
wind speed at the time of writing this report was 410km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -3 nT to +4 nT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to return to mostly nominal levels 
today (05 Apr). The solar wind speed are expected to remain at 
nominal levels on UT day 06-07 Apr. Some mild enhancement in 
solar wind speed are possible due to the influence of a small 
equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21010011
      Cocos Island         2   21010010
      Darwin               2   21020011
      Townsville           1   11010011
      Learmonth            2   21100021
      Alice Springs        2   21010011
      Gingin               2   20010011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   21020011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   20020000
      Casey                6   23320021
      Mawson              18   43232145

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2210 1234     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     7    Quiet
06 Apr     5    Quiet
07 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian 
region on UT day 04 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed quiet to 
active levels. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian 
region over the next 3 days UT days (05-07 Apr). There is chance 
of isolated unsettled periods for 05 Apr due to the possible 
onset of a small equatorial coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 05-07 Apr. Mild degradation may happen 
in high-latitude regions on 06 Apr due to a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity on 05 Apr.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Apr     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 60% during local day.
      Enhanced by 120% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly to mildly enhanced level over most Australian sites on 
UT day 04 Apr. Sporadic E observed at some Australian stations. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 
three UT days, 05-07 Apr, for the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60e+07 (Normal Fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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