[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 4 10:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 03 Apr. There is currently
one numbered region on the visible disc, region 2759 located
at N28E17 which has remained quiet and relatively unchanged over
the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next three days (04-06 Apr).No earth-directed CMEs observed
in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed ranged
between 400 km/s and 450 km/s during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed at the time of this report was 430km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -7 nt to +3 nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to return to nominal levels today (04 Apr).
The solar wind speed are expected to remain at nominal levels
on UT day 05-06 Apr. Some mild enhancement in solar wind speed
are possible on 05 Apr due to the influence of a small equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22011312
Cocos Island 4 21011212
Darwin 5 22011311
Townsville 5 12011322
Learmonth 6 22011322
Alice Springs 4 12001312
Gingin 5 22001322
Canberra 2 11000211
Hobart 4 12001312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 01011311
Casey 11 34221223
Mawson 33 54222366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2221 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed for
the Australian region on UT day 03 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed
quiet to minor storm levels. Mostly quiet conditions expected
for the Australian region over the next 3 days UT days (04-06
Apr). There chance of isolated unsettled periods for 05 Apr due
to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 Apr. Mild degradation may happen
in high-latitude regions on 06 Apr due to possible increase in
geomagnetic activity on 05 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced level over most Australian
sites. Mild MUFs depressions were observed in Northern Australian
region during local day. Sporadic E observed at some Australian
stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 Apr, for the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 83900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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