[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 20 issued 2349 UT on 02 Apr 2020

Fri Apr 3 10:49:46 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 02Apr. There is currently 
one numbered region on the visible disc, region 2759 located 
at N28E30 which has remained quiet and relatively unchanged over 
the last 24 hours. No earth-directed CMEs observed in available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed was 411km/s at 00UT, 
ranged between 400km/s and 450km/s over the UT day and is currently 
410km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component 
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +4nT and 
-5nT. Solar wind speed is expected to return to ambient levels 
over the next 2 days. Possible increase in solar wind speed on 
05Apr due to the influence of a equatorial located positive polarity 
coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on 01Apr. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211122
      Cocos Island         3   11200112
      Darwin               4   12211022
      Townsville           5   12221022
      Learmonth            4   02210122
      Alice Springs        4   11221022
      Gingin               4   02121122
      Canberra             1   00110011
      Hobart               6   13221122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   01232011
      Casey               12   34321133
      Mawson              25   34322265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2210 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     6    Quiet
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian 
region 02Apr with Antarctic regions experiencing Unsettled to 
Active conditions. Quiet conditions expected for the Australian 
region over the next 2 days with Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for Antarctic regions. Possible increase in geomagnetic activity 
05Apr due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for Low-Mid latitudes 02Apr. 
Periods of disturbed ionospheric support for High latitudes. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Apr    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions on 02Apr. Notable sporadic E observed at most 
SWS stations. Extended periods of disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected to range from near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for Equatorial, Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ region for the next 3 days with notable 
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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