[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 7 09:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 06 Apr. There is currently 
one plage without spot on the visible disk, 2759 (N28,W15), produced 
few low level B-class events. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days,07-09 Apr. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was near nominal levels, 
under 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied around 3 nT. The north-south 
component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between +/2 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels 
for the next three days, 07-09 Apr, although some slight enhancements 
may be observed due to weak isolated coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10001000
      Darwin               0   10001000
      Townsville           1   11001000
      Learmonth            0   20000000
      Alice Springs        0   10001000
      Gingin               0   10001000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   00111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00101000
      Casey                4   23212000
      Mawson               3   32111000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5  2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1      


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr     5    Quiet
08 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for the Australian 
region on UT day 06 Apr. The Antarctic sites observed Quiet to 
Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three days, 07-09 Apr 
and a times may reach Unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days, 07-09 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for the Australian region 
on 06 Apr. Moderate MUFs enhancements observed at Cocos Island 
region local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some 
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for 
the next three days, 07-09 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6e+04 
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    53600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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