[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 29 09:31:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 28 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 29 September-
1 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 28 September, the solar wind
speed was at very high levels, ranging from 620 km/s to 720 km/s.
This was in response to high-speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between
3 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
between +/- 5 nT. During the next two UT days, 29-30 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain at high levels as
the coronal hole effects persist. The solar wind speed to expected
to begin to decline from UT day 01 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 23443221
Cocos Island 9 22333220
Darwin 10 23333221
Townsville 14 23443222
Learmonth 13 23343231
Alice Springs 10 23333221
Gingin 17 23444331
Launceston 20 23554222
Hobart 17 23454221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 42 23676311
Casey 18 44433332
Mawson 56 36543675
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 67 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 0111 4355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 25 Quiet to Active with possible Minor Storm periods
30 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
01 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 27 September
and is current for 28-29 Sep. On UT day 28 September, the geomagnetic
activity was at Quiet to Active levels in the Australian region
and reached Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. The Antarctic
region observed Major to Severe Storm levels. The Australian
DST index reached -60 nT. The disturbed conditions were due to
coronal hole effects. On UT days 29-30 September, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to range between Quiet to Active
levels as the high wind speed from the coronal hole persists.
Isolated Minor Storm levels are possible on 29 September. From
UT day 01 October, geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease
gradually to Quiet and Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
29-30 September due ongoing geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
28 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions
were also observed, mostly in the Northern Australian region
local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. Degraded HF propagation conditions are likely
for 29-30 September as a consequence of the geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 95500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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