[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 30 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 30 September-
2 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 29 September, the solar wind
speed was elevated but gradually declined from around 600 km/s
at the start of the UT day, to around 500 km/s currently. The
total IMF (Bt) varied around 4 nT at the start of the UT day,
then gradually increased in the later half of the day reaching
a maximum of 6.4 nT at 29/2309 UT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +3 nT, and has had an extended
southward period since around 29/1230 UT, reaching a minimum
of -5.8 nT at 29/2222 UT. During the next UT day, 30 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain at moderate to strong
levels, then continue to decline on UT days 01-02 October, as
the influence of the recurrent coronal hole decreases.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 12221332
Cocos Island 6 11211331
Darwin 7 12211332
Townsville 8 12222332
Learmonth 8 12221332
Alice Springs 7 11211332
Gingin 7 11211332
Canberra 9 11322332
Launceston 12 22422333
Hobart 10 22322332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 12332332
Casey 17 34432333
Mawson 30 34433365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25 2555 3244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 12 Quiet to Active
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 29 September, the geomagnetic activity was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with an
isolated Active period at high latitudes. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active, with an isolated
Major Storm period observed at Mawson station. On UT day 30 September,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to range between
Quiet to Active levels as the high wind speed from the coronal
hole persists. On UT days 01-02 October, geomagnetic activity
is expected to decrease to Quiet and Unsettled levels as the
influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
30 September due ongoing geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep -12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
30 September. Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
Australian region during the local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. Degraded HF propagation
conditions are likely for 30 September as a consequence of the
geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 642 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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