[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 30 09:31:32 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 September 
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and Very Low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 30 September- 
2 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 29 September, the solar wind 
speed was elevated but gradually declined from around 600 km/s 
at the start of the UT day, to around 500 km/s currently. The 
total IMF (Bt) varied around 4 nT at the start of the UT day, 
then gradually increased in the later half of the day reaching 
a maximum of 6.4 nT at 29/2309 UT. The north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +3 nT, and has had an extended 
southward period since around 29/1230 UT, reaching a minimum 
of -5.8 nT at 29/2222 UT. During the next UT day, 30 September, 
the solar wind speed is expected to remain at moderate to strong 
levels, then continue to decline on UT days 01-02 October, as 
the influence of the recurrent coronal hole decreases.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12221332
      Cocos Island         6   11211331
      Darwin               7   12211332
      Townsville           8   12222332
      Learmonth            8   12221332
      Alice Springs        7   11211332
      Gingin               7   11211332
      Canberra             9   11322332
      Launceston          12   22422333
      Hobart              10   22322332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    10   12332332
      Casey               17   34432333
      Mawson              30   34433365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             25   2555 3244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep    12    Quiet to Active
01 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 29 September, the geomagnetic activity was 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with an 
isolated Active period at high latitudes. In the Antarctic region, 
geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active, with an isolated 
Major Storm period observed at Mawson station. On UT day 30 September, 
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to range between 
Quiet to Active levels as the high wind speed from the coronal 
hole persists. On UT days 01-02 October, geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decrease to Quiet and Unsettled levels as the 
influence of the coronal hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
30 September due ongoing geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep   -12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
30 September. Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Northern 
Australian region during the local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F 
occurrences were observed over some sites. Degraded HF propagation 
conditions are likely for 30 September as a consequence of the 
geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 642 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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